Ladies and gentlemen
Time for political bets as UK election is on the 7th of May 2015.
Before I will publish my picks I will explain some facts for people that are not familiar with political life (and most of them stay far away and have good reasons for it) but there is opportunity to make some easy money as public opinion is consistently biased and manipulated by media and I will try to exploit that fact.
This is insider knowledge and based on my own experience
Histoical background - facts.
1. UK has coalition government elected in 2010 formed by Conservative Party and Liberal Democrats.
2. Conservative Party won last election (got most seats but failed to win overall majority) thanks to three reasons:
- huge economic crisis in 2008-9, bank bailouts, etc etc I'm sure everybody knows, but more here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Financial_crisis_of_2007–08
- huge expenses scandal where newspapers exposed some shady habits of MPs and House of Lords members
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_parliamentary_expenses_scandal
Those habits were common in every party but it particularly hit Labour Party as this party mainly goes to power to make their representatives and their families rich by sucking public money. They always state they are 'labour people' representative while in fact most of their top officials are from rich families, well educated and introduced into politics world, like Ed Milliband. Huge majority of Labour Party especially lower tiers go into politics to turn their life rich and they do not care about labour people at all. They always will want to increase taxes or budget as this creates more opportunities for them and their families into lucrative jobs and contracts.
- huge media campaign, particularly Rupert Murdoch's ones which made a swing in support sensing political overall swing after 13 years of uncontested Labour government.
Rupert Murdoch is a media mogul, most influential person in UK media owning most popular newspaper The Sun and Sky television.
Over the years Rupert Murdoch's media were hacking into celebrities and politicals phone account, bribing police officers and getting top information. More here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/News_International_phone_hacking_scandal
The thing is Rupert Mardoch is a huge David Cameron fan or they made a deal (I think rather the second one) RUPERT MURDOCH MEDIA WILL HELP CONSERVATIVES TO WIN ELECTION FOR COVER UP AND SWEEPING THIS SCANDAL UNDER THE CARPET.
This is a long story and a bit complicated at the first side but just two people:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rebekah_Brooks
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeremy_Hunt_%28politician%29
The first one is long term News of the World and Sun editor and David Cameron neighbor meeting him many times privately and exchanging messages like 'we are all in this together'
https://www.google.co.uk/search?client=opera&q=rebekah+brooks+david+cameron&sourceid=opera&ie=UTF-8&oe=UTF-8[/url]
[url]http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/revealed-the-texts-between-cameron-and-brooks-8280606.html
http://www.itv.com/news/2012-11-04/text-messages-between-david-cameron-and-rebekah-brooks-revealed/
However both Rebekah Brooks and David Cameron escaped responsibility for that as they (or power who stay beyond them) are too powerful.
The second one was Rupert Murdoch's bell boy in UK government while being Culture Secretary - paving a wide way for Rupert Murdoch lobbing for a change in law which would allow Murdoch buy biggest british newspaper News International.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leveson_Inquiry
He also managed to get away as he was promoted for Health Secretary in government reshuffle and now has a budget something like 200 bn a year.
This is how things work. Long story but I try to make things clear as everything is very clear after careful research. Murdoch media made huge campaigh in favour of David Cameron, furthermore they helped to create Nick Clegg - Liberal Democrats leader and helped Lib Dems to rise as they took away huge chunk of Labour Voters. Labour would have lost election sooner or later, all media campaign sped all changes up.
You can not underestimate Rupert Murdoch Media in connection with UK politics as they are for 'blue collar' working people and massively represent working people from lower class which are decisive factor in UK politics.
4. Please bear in mind despite this huge bias by mainstream UK media, raging parliamentary expenses scandal which sent many Labour officials to prison or ousted from politics and significant change for worse for ordinary people (no wages rise, but still inflation) Conservatives FAILED TO WIN A MAJORITY. This was very unconvincing win as Labour should be swept in normal circumstances they remain quite strong in position to strike back in 2015 and they have a real chance to strike back.
5. All the parties like Labour, Conservatives or Liberal Democrats do actually the same politics, people staying in the shadow are more important and those parties make basically show to create false impression voting people have real influence on something. UKIP claims exactly what I claim but it is true (the thing is I don't know maybe UKIP are also in this gang but never had chance to show this). There are some issues Britain will be pushed into by US which are steering this country for decades
- UK have been pushed into Iraq war - if Conservatives would be in power that time UK would go for war even faster than Tony Blair and Labour would oppose
- bankers responsible for economic crisis were not punished but managed to escape and got even bonuses for situation they created and were rescued by public money - this would have happened as international finances are not really steered in London
- UK is 'so independent country' that even the oli price in London is IN DOLLARS
This is a long story but basically UK as a country or voting people have nothing to say in contemporary world and all we see in media is a show.
6. UK has to stay in the European Union despite overwhelming majority of people would vote 'Britain OUT of the EU'
This is a banker and there is no discussion as people from the shadow said this and they will not let UKIP rise into power. To allow an EU referendum (that means 100% people will vote EU exit) we need 325 votes
Out of four-five main political parties in the UK:
- Labour - oppose referendum and will not let it (something like 280 - 380 votes)
- Lib Dems - the biggest europhiles, would not allow referendum (a lot of stipulations) - but they can only be in coalition as they will get something like 15-30 votes (currently 57)
- Conservatives - they say they will allow referendum if they win power - ZERO CHANCES FOR THIS SCENARIO. They will not get majority win this is out of question.
- UKIP - 'UK out of EU' but they will not get more than 10-15 seats and have nothing to say here
- Scottish National Party - total europhiles, as Lib Dems, this is a more radical version of Labour Party.
Conclusion is EVEN IF CONSERVATIVES SHOUT ABOUT REFERENDUM THIS IS A FALSE NOTE. AND THEY ARE SURELY NOT ALLOWED TO DO THIS BY PEOPLE FROM THE SHADOW. EU referendum scenario after election is not a reality as people would have voted UK out of the EU but this is not to be decide by british voters.
Second conclusion is even if Conservatives will win election (get most votes only, overall majority is out of their reach) they have not allies to make EU vote through as Lib Dems will basically oppose and UKIP will not get many seats. If Labour wins referendum idea is binned straight away.
7. Scottish issue and rise of SNP.
Scotland is part of the United Kingdom and out of 650 something House of Commons seats they have guaranteed 69 seats. This is not majority to rule the UK but scottish seats are much different than English ones and this part of the UK has much more to say in the UK as they should for many years as they could overturn elections and make a big two (Conservative or Labour) swing.
Basically Scotland is privileged in the UK, gets much more than they contribute (Barnett formula) and still shout they are better alone. This is total joke but some radicals get media hape and people still think Scotland is harmed watching media propaganda while Scotland is actually country on benefits (free prescriptions, much better care rules, free universities - in UK 9.000 a year). This is out of question Scotland benefits from being the part of the EU.
Look what happened: Scots got a referendum In/Out EU because PEOPLE STEERING UK POLITICS KNEW NO WAY SCOTS WILL VOTE FOR UK EXIT. So people (only in Scotland) got a referendum, voted as they do (must be suicider to cut stream of perks) but main party for Scotland Leaving UK got their media presence and attention.
THIS IS ALMOST CERTAINLY ENGLAND WOULD VOTE SCOTLAND OUT OF THE UK BUT ENGLISH PEOPLE WERE NOT ALLOWED TO VOTE. Which I think it is unfair as when we have an union or marriage BOTH SIDES SHOULD BE ASKED IF THEY AGREE.
Look Scotland and England is like marriage frog with horse. Frog was asked if wants the marriage (and get all the benefits of it) why horse - 10 times bigger have nothing to say in this issue.
Scottish National Party is strongly promoted in media now just like Lib Dems in 2010 (although in left wing medias mainly like BBC) because they surely oppose EU referendum but this is no matter if they or Labour win scottish seats as parties are the same. They do not really want Scotland out of UK because Scotland will go bankrupt months after secession they just want noise and benefits for Scotland and party members and their families. Anyway this kills any chance for Conservative single seat in Scotland and makes 'EU referendum' even more impossible
8. Huge campaign in Rupert Media (and even BBC must take digits into account) that Conservatives managed to turn economy around and they are correct people to be reelected and deserve five more years 'to finish the good things they started'
This consistant process made election from certain Labour win to most unpredictable result in years (according to the media). The facts:
- Conservatives claim they started to pay back UK Debt while in fact they only borrow less new money than Labour (but still not only do not pay debt back but they borrow new money)
[url]http://blogs.channel4.com/factcheck/cameron-busted-on-debt-claims/12556[/url]
Like it was a trillion debt when Cameron came into power and now is something like 1,4 trillion (Labour made debt from 200 bn to 900 bn, while Conservatives increased it to 1,4 bn) and Cameron dares to say 'they pay debt back'
- Conservatives increases VAT from 17,5 % to 20% and it almost wipes out increased income tax threshold.
9. Working people will decide election result.
Let's try to be in 'working people blue collar' skin and try how do they feel.
They are certainly outraged at current government and have reason to be so. They are manipulated that migrants are source of their problems while crisis was provoked by international banksters but they do not understand it and this is why they are encouraged gently to Vote Cameron as they hear he is main EU opponent. Totally ridiculous
This is not enough in my opinion. They see living costs growing, pension and wages stagnation, house price increases, queues in hospitals, benefits cuts and especially English people feel rightly harmed they contributed to the economy so long and see migrants coming and getting social housing out of the blue.
9.Undecided voters. There is deep feeling England is under represented in UK, injustice in social services and public sector unaffordable. Life is becoming tougher in UK and 99% will agree with this. How do these people vote? THEY WILL OPPOSE CURRENT GOVERNMENT. If they vote, they will vote Labour or UKIP.
General conclusions
1. Conservatives will get much less than you can see in media (and bookies) - odds are inflated by manipulated by media people.
2. Labour will get more than expected.
3. SNP will get less as they are hugely promoted in recent times, they will have to share scottish votes with Labour
4. Liberal Democrates will be obliterated in next election as their leader is proven liar (tuition fees Nick Clegg google it) and they will pay the price for being in a government. They have some certain areas when they will do well I will analyse it later and will set my own line for their MPs. This will be better line than any bookmaker can do.
5. UKIP setback. They have had huge success in 2014 EU Paramentary elections, as well s local ones, but they failed to discount that success. Partially it is their fault, partially not (they do not have strong media background like Conservatives (Murdoch) or Labour (BBC) and are only invited and allowd to make noise when they are allowed). This election is out of their reach - I can not see them getting much on the 7th of May.
So my bets will be basically Labour more than you can see in polls, Conservatives less, SNP definitely less as they are party of moment pushed like LibDems in 2010 and I will set my own line as I will challenge bookmaker lines on their seats
Have a good day bets will follow
Brak komentarzy:
Prześlij komentarz